CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 14/12 - 06Z WED 15/12 2004
ISSUED: 14/12 01:18Z
FORECASTER: VAN DER VELDE

General thunderstorms are forecast across Sicily and the central Mediterranean Sea, Norwegian coast.

SYNOPSIS

Large high pressure ridge over Europe causes stable conditions. Strong southwestern flow is in place over northwestern Europe with windy and rainy or showery conditions. Upper air temperatures are still low enough over the Mediterranean to generate unstable conditions with a few thunderstorms, but high pressure will tend to suppress convective activity.

DISCUSSION

...see text area...
Weak waterspouts seem to be a good possibility given the good low level buoyancy and lapse rates, along with very weak vertical windshear. The expected isolated convection will initiate over lines of convergence within the weak flow that can provide the vertical vorticity to be stretched to produce spouts.

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